Methodology

Three investment pockets

Three strategies, one philosophy: split the invested portion of capital into three pockets by horizon and risk, then let each pocket do its job.

• Crypto Long-only Bitcoin exposure, managed by Bitcoin QE depending on the macro regime.
• Stocks Individual stock picks (~$300k bucket), managed by the Stocks strategy.
• SPX & Gold Index and metals exposure, managed by Composite QE.

Each of the three pockets is driven by a strategy published openly on this site — rules, performance history, and current signal.

The training cut-off

Each strategy displays a calibration date at the top of its page. That's the date the parameters were frozen after observing historical data.

Anything that happens after that date is observed in live conditions, with no possible rule changes. That's the out-of-sample (OOS) zone — the one that actually validates whether the strategy holds up.

A strategy that outperforms in-sample but underperforms OOS is probably overfit. That's why both periods are shown side by side: the numbers must remain credible after the cut-off.

Transparency and limits

• Not investment advice. This site shares results for informational purposes. Any investment decision remains your responsibility.
• No paywall, no signup required to view the live data and results.
• Methodology published. Each strategy explains its logic in plain language. Raw numbers are always visible.
• No hidden simulations. Historical curves are produced by the same code that drives live signals. No retroactive parameter tuning.
• GME excluded. The legacy GME position is not representative of the Stocks model and is explicitly excluded from published statistics.